Preferred Bitcoin proxy stock pick

Last Week's US Stock Review and This Week's Outlook (5.4) Last week, the US stock market overall showed an upward trend amidst volatility, with major indices touching or refreshing historical highs multiple times. $纳指 100ETF-Invesco QQQ Trust (http://QQQ.US)$ stood above the 25,000 mark for the first time, rising 1.5% last week and 9.8% year-to-date, driven significantly by the Tech/AI sector. My account recovered with an 8% rise last week, up about 25% year-to-date. Reached a new high again, continuing to significantly outperform the Nasdaq. Position is around 85%. Main Driving Factors: AI and semiconductor optimism continues: Earlier $美国超微公司 (http://AMD.US)$, $高通 (http://QCOM.US)$ $英特尔 (http://INTC.US)$ and other chip stocks performed strongly, (Magnificent Seven) partial earnings boosted the market, Big Tech and Communication Services sectors led the gain. Geopolitical Impact: Iran conflict and Hormuz Strait tension pushed up oil prices (WTI once exceeded $105), but the market overall "ignored" the risk, strong consumer data (retail sales exceeded expectations) supported economic resilience. April Overall Performance Strong: Nasdaq rose over 15%, S&P 500 $标普 500ETF-SPDR (http://SPY.US)$ rose over 10%, Dow rose over 7%, creating one of the best single months in recent years. Overall, risk appetite recovered, market optimism on AI growth and Fed policy expectations outweighed geopolitical uncertainty. This week is a dense earnings week + employment data week, market focus will concentrate on AI theme validation, consumer trends, and Fed rate cut expectations (Non-farm data key). Geopolitics (Iran/Oil) and multiple Fed officials' speeches may still trigger volatility. 1. Major Economic Events and Data: Monday: New York Fed President Williams speaks (12:50 ET) Friday (May 8): Non-farm Payrolls Report (April, most important), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (directly affects rate cut expectations). 2. Key Company Earnings Dates (AI and Consumer sectors mainly) This week earnings volume is huge, AI infrastructure and consumer recovery are core highlights.: Monday: $Palantir (http://PLTR.US)$, Tuesday: $美国超微公司 (http://AMD.US)$ $Strategy (http://MSTR.US)$ $Lumentum (http://LITE.US)$ $辉瑞 (http://PFE.US)$ Wednesday: $Arm Holdings (http://ARM.US)$ $Coherent (http://COHR.US)$ $Applovin (http://APP.US)$ Thursday: $Coinbase (http://COIN.US)$ $CoreWeave (http://CRWV.US)$ It is expected that the market will return to normal in May, not like March-April with large rises and falls. As earnings disclosure completes, the market will return to rationality, stock price fluctuations driven by performance rather than emotional events. Bitcoin (BTC) current price is oscillating in the $78,000-$79,900 range (May 4 intraday once broke through $80,000, creating a new high since January 2026, then fell back slightly). Overall shows strong rebound + range consolidation trend: April performance bright: Full month rose about 12%-16%, best single month performance in 2026 (also strongest in nearly a year), rebounded over 30% from February low around $60,000 Core Driving Factors: Institutional capital dominance: US Spot Bitcoin ETF April net inflow about $1.97-2.44 billion (created 2026 best, close to doubling March), $比特币 ETF-iShares (http://IBIT.US)$ and other products holdings surged, institutional accumulation obvious (has locked a significant proportion of Bitcoin circulating supply). Macro and Geopolitics: Middle East tension (Iran related) pushed up oil prices bringing "war premium", but market overall "ignored" short-term risk, ETF inflows provided structural support. Cycle Background: October 2025 once created historical high (over $118,000-$126,000), early 2026 entered bear market correction (YTD once fell over 20%), but under ETF era "four-year cycle" influence weakened, institutional demand has become main price driver. Technically, Bitcoin broke out from descending channel, currently building bottom in $75,000-$80,000 range, 200-day moving average (about $82,000) is key resistance. Fear and Greed Index is at 40-50 (Fear to Neutral), sentiment gradually improving. Overall, recent rebound is healthy but still belongs to recovery stage, volatility high. Basic View: Mild oscillating upward or range consolidation, probability leans to 10-20% gain, but volatility violent, not excluding short-term pullback testing $70,000-$75,000 support. Most institutional analysts still hold neutral-bullish on 2026 full year Bearish Factors: Short-term (Q2-Q3) expectations relatively cautious, because traditional cycle believers think there is a last fall in Q2, Q3, if US stock market experiences major volatility, Fed policy turn (rate path), geopolitical conflict continues pushing up inflation etc. not excluding short-term breaking below 60,000 vicinity probability occurs (below 20% probability) Bullish Factors (Higher probability scenario): ETF inflows if maintain $100-200 million/week scale, plus potential US regulatory favorable policies (such as Digital Asset Market Clarity Act), may push end of year Bitcoin test $80,000-$85,000, even challenge $90,000. Institutional Consensus: Franklin Templeton, Standard Chartered, Bernstein and others predict 2026 within year rebound to over $100,000 (even higher), Q3 or become turning point. Preferred Stocks: $Strategy (http://MSTR.US)$ $Circle (http://CRCL.US)$, Secondary: $Coinbase (http://COIN.US)$ $Bitmine Immersion Technologies (http://BMNR.US)$ $MARA Holdings (http://MARA.US)$