Author argues custom silicon is not a meaningful threat to NVIDIA this decade due to massive AI compute demand growth that will expand the total addressable market significantly

The custom silicon "threat" to $NVDA is hollow AI compute TAM is projected to 4x by 2030 by "expert" (it's probably more like 10-100x if you ask me). In the 4x scenario, if NVIDIA goes from 85% share to 65%, their addressable revenue still triples. Google already runs 75% of Gemini on TPUs. They're still one of NVIDIA's biggest GPU customers. Amazon has 500K Trainium chips deployed. They're still ordering in size. Custom silicon isn't displacement this decade. Demand is so large no single source can fill it for the foreseeable future. The denominator is moving far too fast for the numerator to matter...